I-Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) ayisona isitoko esijwayelekile sobuchwepheshe, njengoba kufakazelwa iqiniso lokuthi isitoko sisahweba ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane.Kungenzeka ukuthi uDell akakhuli ngesivinini esifanayo nozakwabo bezobuchwepheshe, kodwa inkampani yenza imali eqinile ye-GAAP futhi ibuyisela amasheya ayo ashibhile.Ukukhula okunensayo cishe kuwumphumela ongcono kakhulu abatshalizimali abangathemba ukuya phambili, kodwa kungase kube ngokwanele ukuthethelela ukwanda okuningana okubalulekile, okuhambisana nembuyiselo enedijithi ekabili enganele ukwenza imbuyiselo engcono kunemakethe.Njengoba inkampani ikhipha umbiko wayo weholo ngoMsombuluko, Nov. 21, ukulinganisa okuphansi kwesitoko kwenza kube ukuthengwa okuhle ngaphambi kokukhishwa kwabezindaba.
I-Dell ingama-30% ngaphansi kwezinga eliphezulu elibekwe ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, kodwa isengama-80% ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane.
Okuningi kwalokhu kusebenza okuqinile kudalwe yinqubekelaphambili enkulu eyenziwe ekunciphiseni umthwalo wezikweletu.Ukugcina lapho ngibheka isitoko se-DELL kwakungoJulayi lapho ngisincoma njengokuthenga ngenxa yesilinganiso saso esiphansi sentengo-kuya-amaholo.Isitoko sehle ngo-11%, okwenza isiphakamiso senani sihehe nakakhulu.
Ngekota yakamuva, imali ezuziwe kaDell ikhule ngo-9% kanti imali engenayo yokusebenza okungeyona eye-GAAP ikhuphuke ngo-4%.Nokho, ukukhula kukonke akuyisho yonke indaba.I-Customer Solutions Group (isigaba se-PC) ithumele ukukhula okuqinile kwemali engenayo ngo-9%, kodwa ocingweni lwengqungquthela, uDell waphawula ukuthi imvelo enkulu iye yawohloka kakhulu kusukela ekuphawuleni kokugcina ngoMeyi, kodwa futhi yaphawula ukuthi bakwazile ukuqeda iDemand ebuthakathaka- okuthinta amanani amaphakathi aphezulu okuthengisa kanye nokuthuthukiswa kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ekuphathweni kwempahla.Inkampani ayikwazi ukuzuza kulokho kukhishwa.
UDell uthole isabelo semakethe ye-PC kumakota angama-34 kwangu-38 futhi njengamanje uhola imakethe ye-PC yebhizinisi.
Ngokuphawulekayo, i-Infrastructure Solutions Group ikhule ngokushesha ngenxa yamamajini aphezulu kule ngxenye yebhizinisi.
Ngaphandle kwe-CAGR kaDell ka-6% kuphela kusukela ngo-2019, inkampani ikwazile ukwehlisa isikweletu sisonke ngama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-37.4, okwehlisela isikweletu se-1.7x ku-EBITDA.
Abaphathi benze ukubuyiselwa kwemali kubanikazi bamasheya kwaba yinto ehamba phambili esabelweni sabo semali futhi bakhokha izabelo zekota kanye nokuthenga kabusha amasheya.Inkampani ithenge kabusha amasheya enani eliyizigidi ezingama- $608 phakathi nekota futhi ihlose ukubuyisela imali engafinyelela ku-60% yamahhala (ngokusekelwe cishe emalini engenayo engu-100% eguqulelwe ekubeni nokuphuma kwemali kwamahhala) ibuyele kubanikazi bamasheya.
Uma ubheka phambili, uDell ulindele ukuthi imali yonke engenayo yehle ngo-8% unyaka nonyaka, okubonisa isidingo esiqhubekayo esibuthakathaka kanye nokungakwazi ukuvala lokhu ngokunyuka kwamanani.U-Dell ulindele ukuthi imali etholwayo ngesheya ngalinye izinze unyaka nonyaka ngenxa yomthelela wokuthengwa kabusha kwamasheya kanye nomnikelo omkhulu ovela kuyunithi yebhizinisi ye-ISG eshiwo ngenhla.
Uma kubhekwa uchungechunge lwemibiko edumazayo yemali etholwayo yobuchwepheshe, akumangazi ukuthi abahlaziyi behlise izilinganiso zenzuzo ngesabelo ngasinye sekota yakamuva, nakuba izibikezelo zokuvumelana zisaphakamisa izinzuzo ezingezona ze-GAAP zesincomo.
Abanikazi bamasheya abangaba khona kufanele baqonde ukuthi uDell ngeke alethe amanani okukhula angama-20% kuya ku-30% ajwayelekile ezitokweni zobuchwepheshe.Kodwa-ke, ngokungafani nezitoko ezijwayelekile zobuchwepheshe, u-Dell uhola ngaphansi kwe-GAAP futhi uhweba ngokuphindaphindwa kweholo elinedijithi eyodwa.
Abaphathi balindele ukukhula kwenzuzo ngesheya ngalinye ngo-6% esikhathini eside ngokusekelwe ekukhuleni kwemali engenayo yonyaka ngo-3% kuya ku-4%.Amasheya ahweba ngenzuzo ephindwe ka-6.3, kodwa umgomo wabaphathi uwukubuyisela kufikela ku-60% wenzuzo kubanikazi bamasheya ngezabelo zezabelo nokwabelana ngokuthenga.Lokhu kusho ukuthi imbuyiselo yabanikazi bamasheya ecishe ibe ngu-9.5% kanye nesibikezelo sokukhula kwemali engenayo esingu-3% kuya ku-4% kufanele kwanele ukukhiqiza imbuyiselo enezinombolo ezimbili.Kodwa lokho kucatshangwa ukuthi azikho ukwanda okuningi, futhi ngisola ukuthi isitoko kufanele sibuyekezwe ngokuhamba kwesikhathi njengoba inkampani iqhubeka nokuthenga amasheya ngaleso sikhathi esinolaka.Ukwengeza, ngokunciphisa isilinganiso sesikweletu esihlosiwe/EBITDA esingu-1.5x, abaphathi bangase babe nokuvumelana nezimo okwengeziwe ukusebenzisa imali engabelwe ngezinye izinjongo. Nakuba abaphathi babonakala begxile kakhulu ekusebenziseni imali eyeqile ku-M&A, nginethemba lokuthenga kabusha amasheya okunonya kanye nokuthi i-M&A yenzeke kuphela ngemva kokuba isitoko senziwe kabusha sibe nenani eliphakeme kakhulu. Nakuba abaphathi babonakala begxile kakhulu ekusebenziseni imali eyeqile ku-M&A, nginethemba lokuthenga kabusha amasheya okunonya kanye nokuthi i-M&A yenzeke kuphela ngemva kokuba isitoko senziwe kabusha sibe nenani eliphakeme kakhulu. Nakuba abaphathi bebonakala begxile kakhulu ekusebenziseni ukheshi we-M&A oweqile, ngibheke ngabomvu ukuthenga ngezabelo okunolaka kanye ne-M&A ezokwenzeka kuphela ngemva kokwenziwa kabusha kwentengo yamasheya. Nakuba abaphathi babonakala begxile kakhulu ekusebenziseni imali eyeqile ku-M&A, ngilindele ukuthengwa kabusha okunolaka kanye ne-M&A kuphela ngemva kokuba amasheya enyuke kakhulu.Ngikuthola kungenakwenzeka ukuthi inkampani ethenga emuva cishe u-6% wamasheya ayo ngonyaka ihwebe ngenzuzo ephindwe izikhathi ezingu-6.3 emalini eyitholayo, futhi lo mbono ukhula kakhulu uma inkampani ithenga futhi amasheya angu-14% asele ngonyaka. .Ngibone izitoko zenza kabusha intengo ekuzuzeni okungu-10-12x, okusho ukuthi amandla angaphezu kuka-60% akhuphukayo avela ekwandeni okuningi kuphela.Lesi siphindaphinda singasibeka ezingeni elifanayo nezinye izinkampani zobuchwepheshe ezisunguliwe njenge-Cisco (CSCO) ne-Oracle (ORCL).
Yiziphi izingozi eziyinhloko?Okokuqala, ukukhula kungenzeka kwehle ngaphandle kwebanga lama-3% kuye ku-4%.Izinkampani ezikhula kancane kudala zesaba ukuthi ukukhula kuzogcina kufiphele futhi kube kubi. Enye ingozi ukuthi uma abaphathi besebenzisa ibhalansi ukuze baxhase izifiso ze-M&A. Enye ingozi ukuthi uma abaphathi besebenzisa ibhalansi ukuze baxhase izifiso ze-M&A. Enye ingozi ukuthi abaphathi bazosebenzisa ibhalansi ukuxhasa ngezimali izifiso ze-M&A. Enye ingozi ukuthi abaphathi bazosebenzisa ibhalansi yabo ukuze baxhase izifiso ze-M&A. Ngibheka indlela eya esilinganisweni esiphindwe kaningi njengokuxhomeka esilinganisweni esiphansi kanye nohlelo olunolaka kakhulu lokuthenga kabusha ukwabelana, kodwa umkhankaso we-M&A ovuswe isikweletu uzosebenza ngendlela ehlukile futhi okungenzeka ubangele isitoko ukuthi siqhubeke sihweba ngeziphindaphinda ezinesaphulelo. Ngibheka indlela eya esilinganisweni esiphindwe kaningi njengokuxhomeka esilinganisweni esiphansi kanye nohlelo olunolaka kakhulu lokuthenga kabusha ukwabelana, kodwa umkhankaso we-M&A ovuswe isikweletu uzosebenza ngendlela ehlukile futhi okungenzeka ubangele isitoko ukuthi siqhubeke sihweba ngeziphindaphinda ezinesaphulelo. Ngibuka indlela eya ekubuyekezweni kwezilinganiso eziningi njengencike ekunikezeni amandla okuphansi kanye nohlelo olunolaka kakhulu lokuthenga ukwabelana, kodwa umkhankaso we-M&A oholwa yisikweletu uzosebenza ngokuphambene futhi ngokunokwenzeka uphoqe isitoko ukuthi siqhubeke sihweba ngesaphulelo esiphindaphindwayo. Ngicabanga ukuthi indlela eya ekubuyekezweni kwezilinganiso eziningi incike esilinganisweni esiphansi kanye nohlelo lokubuyisela ukwabelana olunolaka, kodwa uhlelo olusekelwe esikweletini lwe-M&A lungaba nomphumela ophambene futhi lungagcina ukuhweba kwesitoko kuningi elinesaphulelo.Kuyafaneleka futhi ukusho ukuthi ingozi "yokuthatha" ivele ngaphambili.Ikakhulukazi, kunengozi yokuthi inani lamasheya lizokwehla futhi i-CEO yakwaDell izozama ukuthenga amasheya ngentengo ephansi, okudumazayo abanikazi bamasheya abathenge ngentengo ephezulu.
Ngisakholelwa ukuthi amasheya e-DELL kufanele athengwe lapho kubhekene nokuphahlazeka kwezobuchwepheshe, nakuba izingozi ezingenhla ziwagcina ephansi.
Izitoko zokukhula ziphahlazekile.Uma uyithenga, imigwaqo igcwele igazi futhi akekho ofuna ukuyithenga.Nginikeze ababhalisile be-Best of Breed Growth Stocks ngohlu lwe-Tech Crash 2022, futhi nalu uhlu lwami lokuthi ngingathenga kuphi ngesikhathi sokuphahlazeka kobuchwepheshe.
UJulian Lin ungumhlaziyi wezezimali omkhulu.U-Julian Lin uqhuba i-Best Of Breed Growth Stocks, isevisi yocwaningo eyembula izinkolelo eziphezulu zabawine esikhathini esizayo.
Ukudalula: Mina/sinesikhundla eside esinenzuzo esitokisini se-DELL ngobunikazi besitoko, izinketho noma okunye okuphuma kuyo.Lesi sihloko sabhalwa yimi futhi siveza owami umbono.Angitholanga sinxephezelo (ngaphandle kokuthi Ukufuna i-Alpha).Anginabo ubudlelwano bebhizinisi nanoma yiziphi izinkampani ezibalwe kulesi sihloko.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Nov-18-2022